Monday, June 28, 2010

Federal Election Preview: Chifley

Preview by me. (Declaration: I know both the ALP and Greens candidates so I'll be sure to keep my preview balanced)

Chifley was created in 1969 and is named after former Prime Minister Ben Chifley. Chifley has always been a safe Labor seat with the lowest 2PP margin being 12.98% at the 2004 election. Roger Price is retiring this year after being the member for 26 years.
2007 Results                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
CandidatePartyVote %Swing %
Roger PriceALP64.19+10.12
Jess DiazLiberals23.76-6.62
John ForresterGreens3.61-1.66
Dave VincentCDP3.42+1.21
Louise KedwellOne Nation1.47 -0.53
James CoganSocialist
Evan JewellFF1.26-0.24
Wayne HylandIND0.60-0.24
Amarjit TandaIND0.36NEW
70.66%-29.34% Swing: 8.69%

Arndell Park,  Bidwill, Blackett,  Colebee,  Dean Park,  Dharruk,  Doonside,  Emerton,  Glendenning,  Hassall Grove, Hebersham,  Huntingwood,  Lethbridge Park,  Marayong,  Minchinbury,  Mount Druitt, Oakhurst,  Plumpton,  Rooty Hill,  Ropes Crossing,  Shalvey,  Shanes Park,  Tregear,  Whalan, Willmot,  Woodcroft  and  parts of  Eastern Creek, Blacktown, Quakers Hill, Schofields and Riverstone

With Roger Price retiring the ALP has selected union official Ed Husic. Ed ran in Greenway in 2004 and was the victim of a Liberal Party flyer distribution similar to the 2007 Lindsay one. Despite it not coming out that the flyer was a fake Ed missed out on winning the seat by just 0.5%

Though it is STILL not official the Liberals are running David Barker. Barker is the son of Blacktown City councillor Jacqueline Donaldson who is part of the campaign to restore bus services the locals have been campaigning for.

Greens - Debbie Robertson has lived in the Mt Druitt area for over 20 years and has been a carer for 3 disabled sons for most of that time. She is a very active campaigner in the local community and is convenor of the Blacktown Greens.

No other candidates yet.

Ed Husic will romp in. Chifley has always been and probably will always be a safe Labor seat.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Federal Election Preview: North Sydney

Preview by Seamus Lee - @teenman

North Sydney has been for a long time a Liberal held seat. The only times in which it hasn't been held by a Liberal politician is when Ted Mack held the seat from as an Independent 1990 to 1996.
 2007 Results

Candidate Party Vote % Swing %
Kundan Misra Citizens Electoral Council 0.29

Arie Baalbergen CDP 0.73 NEW
Marcus Aussie-Stone IND 0.62 NEW
Joe Hockey LP 51.81 -4.42
Ted Nixon Greens 9.21 -3.12
Barry Thompson Climate Change Coalition 1.31 NEW
John Caferatta FF 0.41 +0.39
Mike Bailey ALP 32.62 +8.35

55.38%- 44.62% Swing - 4.66%

Artarmon, Cremorne, Cammeray, Castle Cove, CastleCrag, Chatswood, Chatswood West, Crows Nest, Gladesville, Gore Hill, Greenwich, Henley, Hunters Hill, Huntleys Point, Kirribilli, Lane Cove, Lane Cove North, Lane Cove West, Lavender Bay, Linley Point, Longueville, McMahons Point, Milsons Point, Monash Park, Naremburn, , North Sydney, North Willoughbym Northbridge, Northwood, Riverview, St Leonards,  Waverton, willoughby, Willoughby east, Wollstonecraft, Woolwich
With the redistributions the seat of North Sydney has moved slightly west and bit north
Joe Hockey - Joe has lived in sydney all his life and has been a long serving member of parliament. Has been the minister for Financial Services and Regulation, Small Business and Tourism, Human Services, employment and workplace relations during his  14 years in parliament. He has been president of the young liberals in NSW.
Andrew Robjones - Has been in the area for a number of years and works in North Ryde and is the Deputy Mayor of North Sydney council. He is an active member of the greens.
Key Issues: Reducing the noise from the freeway. Andrew is in support for the RTA to construct noice protection walls to reduce the noise around the Warringah Freeway
                   The greeens also support reducing developer donations. This is becuase there are developments being planned around the areas in North    
                   Sydney and the developers seem to be getting their way in relation to negotiations with councils
There will be more to come as with all the other candidates
Leta Webb - She lives in Milsons Pont and is a lecturer in envionmental law. She has sworked as director of responsible planning and environment at both Ku-ring-gai and leichhardt councils. She also worked as the executive director for the shore regional orgainsation of councils.
Key Issues: Development of renewable energy and energy incentives
                  Intergrate sustainable development principals into urban and economic planning.
                  Health and hospital reform
                  Protection of the harbour foreshores
                  More affordable housing
No other candidates announced as of yet.
Joe Hockey should return the seat. However if the Greens are able to run a successful it may mean that Joe Hockey could be pushed to hold the seat on preferences. With more of Chatswood being included in the seat the greens vote should increase. Labor will struggle to hold onto the gains made in 2007 becuase they don't have the star factor of Mike Bailey and Kevin Rudd 
Paul's Prediction: Easy Lib hold. Increase in primary vote for The Greens and Liberals

Federal Election Preview: Werriwa

Preview by @coldsnacks
An original Federation electorate, Werriwa has mainly been held by Labor, and is considered a safe Labor seat. Former seat of former Labor leader Mark Latham and former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.
2007 Results
CandidatePartyVote %Swing %
Rachel ElliotLiberals30.17-7.44
Chris HayesALP58.83+8.92
Neerav BhaatGreens3.79+0.07
Joe BryantIND2.53NEW
Andrew MillsFamily First2.41+2.00
Hany GayedCDP2.28+1.90
65.24%-34.76% - Swing 8.3%
Austral, West Hoxton, Prestons, Lurnea and parts of Liverpool in the north, to Claymore and Minto Heights in the south, bounded by the Georges River to the east and generally by the Sydney Water Supply Channel, Raby Road, Rileys Creek, Anthony Road, Barry Avenue and Allenby Road to the west. The main suburbs include Austral, Bardia, Bow Bowing, Casula, Claymore, Denham Court, Edmondson Park, Eschol Park, Glenfield, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Ingleburn, Leppington, Lurnea, Macquarie Fields, Minto, Minto Heights, Prestons, Raby, St Andrews, Varroville, and parts of Liverpool, Leumeah and West Hoxton.

Laurie Ferguson (current MP for  Reid and Parliamentary Secretary) - Sitting MP Chris Hayes has been moved to Fowler, despite protests from the community, to accommodate Ferguson who is a favourite of Julia Gillard.
No other candidates have been announced but it is expected that the Liberal Party will again go with Rachel Elliot.

Even with the electoral redistribution (Werriwa now contains Austral, from Fowler, losing parts of Camden to Macarthur) and the initial community anger over a candidate being parachuted in at the expense of the sitting member, it is unlikely that the Liberals would be able to capture a large enough swing to win the seat.
Labor to comfortably hold.  Slight swing to the Liberals (between 2 and 5%)

Paul's Prediction - Easy Labor hold.

Federal Election Seat Previews.

Over the next few days/weeks I will be posting seat previews for the upcoming Federal Election. all previews have been done by people who live in the seat. The majority of the preview will be by the original author, I may edit a few things for formatting purposes or add/subtract things for length. If you would like to do one for your seat email it to me - ausvotes(at)gmail(dot)com

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Lindsay Tanner to retire at next election.

During Question Time today Lindsay Tanner announced he will not be re-contesting his seat of Melbourne at the next election. Lindsay will be sorely missed by myself and others, he was a great performer in QT and very quick-witted.
The ALP was in danger of losing Melbourne to the Greens at the next election and I think the retirement of Tanner may just send it over the edge.
What are your thoughts on Tanner retiring?

Julia Gillard to be sworn in as Prime Minister today + random thoughts on it all.

Today, at 12:30pm Julia Gillard will be sworn in as Australia's 27th (and first female) Prime Minister. This has come about due to the ALP panicking over the media's reporting of 1 bad poll. The latest polls had the ALP in an election winning position, of course you wouldn't know that reading The Australian and it seems the ALP and the ABC for that matter were. It seems downrihgt moronic to me to change leaders so close to an election and when leading in the polls.

Having said that I'm a Julia Gillard fan (as my tweeps would know) and have said numerous times I can't wait for her to be PM. Let's hope she starts moving the ALP back towards the left (or at least the centre) a little bit.

My first piece of advice to Ms Gillard is to dump Conroy as Minister for Broadband, Commincations and The Digital Economy and replace him with @katelundy.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Penrith by-election results and pictures.

UPDATE 12:05pm Monday: Figures now include pre-poll and postal votes.

I'm very late with the results here but I do have 1 thing some others dont, pictures I took while I touring some of the booths. I met Keneally at Penrith South Public School, she was happy to meet me until I told her I predicted an 18.2% swing to Liberals. Having said all that she looked great though. Anyway, here are the results and pictures.

Candidate Vote % Swing %
John Thain 24.5 -24.2
Suzie Wright 12.1 +6.6
Mick Saunders 2.0 New
Stuart Ayres 51.5 +18.9
David Leyonjhelm 1.9 New
Jose Sanz 0.9 +/-0
Andrew Green 4.4 -1.8
Noel Selby 2.7 New
2PP result - 66.5%-33.5% - 2PP swing 25.7%
Turnout - 85.2%
Informal - 3.2%

(My camera shit itself so pics were taken on my phone, hence pretty poor quality)

Monday, June 14, 2010

NSW election debate on Twitter - #penrithdebate

According to @KevinWilde, the 9 network has organised a twitter debate between @kkeneally @barryofarrell @leerhiannon for this Wednesday, 16th June. The debate will start at 11:15am, last 30 minutes and will use the #penrithdebate tag. The by-election is not the only issue that will be discussed, they are just using that hashtag because the by-election is on saturday, No word yet on whether Kevin will ask all the questions or if they'll select any from the hashtag stream. I'll be watching (and maybe participating.) Hope to see you there.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Netherlands General Election results.

I'm a couple of days late wuth this but here it is. Netherlands went to the polls on the 9th to elect a new parliament. All 150 seats in the House of Represenatives were up for grabs (coincidentally Australia also has 150 seats in the House of Reps)
PartyVote %SwingSeatsSeat Change
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy20.4%+5.7%31+9
Labour Party19.6%-1.6%30-3
Party for Freedom15.5%+9.6%24+15
Christian Democratic Appeal13.7%-12.8%21-20
Socialist Party9.9%-6.7%15-10
Democrats 666.9%+4%10+7
Reformed Political Party1.7%+0.1%2+/-0
Party for the Animals1.3%-0.5%2+/-0

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Penrith By-election preview.

A by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith wil be held on the 19th June due to the resignation of Karyn Paluzzano who lied to ICAC over her actions, such as signing false staff payslips and rorting her electoral mail allowance.

Penrith has traditonally been a safe Labor seat. Paluzzano won the seat at the 2007 election with 48.7% of the primary vote and 59.2% 2PP (a swing of 2.9% to ALP) Since it's creation in 1973 Penrith has been held by Labor for all but 3 years (1988-1991).

2007 Results

CandidatePartyVote %Swing %
Karyn PaluzzanoALP48.7+2.3
Tricia HitchenLiberals32.6-3.0
Andrew GreenCDP6.2+3.4
Suzie Wright Greens5.6-0.3
Geoff BrownIndependent3.6New
Andrew MavinAAFI2.6New
Geraldine WatersDemocrats0.9+/- 0

All or some of the following suburbs are situated in Penrith
Blaxland, Cambridge Park, Castlereagh, Cranebrook, East Blaxland, Emu Heights, Emu Plains, Glenbrook, Jamisontown, Kingswood, Kingswood Park, Lapstone, Lemongrove, Leonay, Mount Pleasant, Penrith, Raaf Glenbrook, South Penrith

(Names link to candidate website if availlable)
John Thain - Thain (48) has lived in the Penrith area for 15 years. He was first elected to Penrith Council in 1999, served as Deputy Mayor 2004/05 and Mayor 2005/06

Suzie Wright - Wright has largely worked in the community and adult education sectors. attended Nepean High and has lived in the area for most of her life. She has part of the campaign protesting development on the ADI site in the area.
Key Issues:
  • Penrith deserves decent politics - The Greens believe all politicians should be transparent and accountable. We have never accepted donations from developers and have worked hard in State Parliament to put an end to the influence of corporate money on political decisions. We do politics differently by putting the community first.
  • Public Transport - For too long the residents of the Penrith electorate have been overlooked when it comes to their transport needs. The Greens stand for greater investment in public transport so that everyone can access public transport when and where they need it. More motorways will only add to Sydney's transport woes and air pollution levels. We need fast, frequent and safe buses, trains and more cycleways.
  • Overdevelopment - It's vital that Penrith's precious natural areas and agricultural land is protected. Protecting natural areas means a healthier lifestyle for each and every one of us today, as well as for future generations. The Greens have campaigned hard to save the last remnants of Cumberland Plains Woodlands and Grasslands including the ADI site and to save Sydney's food basin. We will fiercely protect Western Sydney from overdevelopment and continue to work for a more sustainable Penrith.
  • Healthy Communities - World class health services are the foundation of our community. Both State and Federal Governments have failed the people of Western Sydney by reducing services, staffing and amenity at the Nepean Hospital. The Greens would work to ensure the needs of Penrith are met when it comes to the provision of high quality public health services. We believe government also has a responsibility to prevent illness and promote healthier lifestyles. The Greens would introduce a healthy communities plan for Penrith if elected.

Mick Saunders - He has lived in Western Sydney for most of his life.He has served in the Australian Army and has worked in the railways at Penrith. He is the Australia Fisrt PArty but as they are not registered with the NSW electoral commission he will be listed as an independent.
Key Issues:  
  • There is an open plan to explode the population of Western Sydney. Land can be acquired by force and sold off to developers. Stop this population explosion and the immigration invasion of our suburbs!  
  • Public assets should remain in public hands. Get back what has been stolen!
  • Citizens' Initiated Referenda. That means people can propose laws and have them voted on. That's real democracy!
  • End the road tolls. Take State taxes off fuel. No more private roadways. Make road rules 'national' so they don't vary State to State.
  • Corruption? Make the guilty pay back the community in full

Stuart Ayres - Ayres is 29 and has lived in Penrith since 1993. He is an AFL player having played 190 games for the Penrith Rams. He would have played his 200th game this season were it not for the by-election. He also a keen horse racing man and owns shares in a couple of horses. In the past he has worked for Jackie Kelly. He is the partner of NSW Senator Marise Payne.
Key Issues:
  • Safety on Victoria Bridge
  • Revitalising Dunheved Business Park
  • Improving our local roads
  • A fast train service between Penrith and Sydney
  • Improving our local bus network
  • More resources for Nepean Hospital
  • Keeping our community safe with more frontline police
  • Cracking down on anti-social behaviour, including graffiti
  • Conserving our native bushland and water quality in the Nepean River
  • Impact of population growth on our area
  • Bring honesty and accountability back to government
  • Housing affordability and the rising cost of living
  • Quality and availability of local sporting fields

David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation Party) - David has been a member of both Young Labor and Young Liberals. He was the DLP candidate in Bennelong in the 2007 Federal election.

Jose Sanz - Jose previously worked for the Penrith Panthers Leagues Club and now works at CUA Stadium Penrith.

Andrew Green- Andrew worked for Greens Foods until 1999 when he left to become a pastor. He was the CDP candidate for Penrith in the 2007 state election, Lindsay in the 2007 federal election and Penrith Council in 2008.

Noel Selby  – A resident of Jamisontown and former local soccer coach, and Hawkesbury Community Radio Board member.
Stuart Ayres will romp in. By-elections almost always produce big to massive swings and this time won't be any difference. The task for Stuart and the Liberal Party is to try to hold Penrith at the 2011 election.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

The latest polls, The Greens and terrible numbers for both leaders.

Newspoll released last night had a 2PP vote of 51-49 to the ALP. there's nothing strange about that, yesterday's Essential Research poll also had a 2PP of 51-49. What was a bit strange in the Newspoll was the primary figures. ALP 35% (-2), LIB/NAT 41% (-2) and Greens on 16% (+4)

What do you think? Do you think this poll is an outlier? Do you think will get anyhwere near 16% at the next election?

Another interesting this that both polls has shown collapse is the fall in approval and rise in disapproval of both leaders. Kevin Rudd is in negative net approval territory with Essential for the first time (-6) which is a -10% change from last time. Abbott is at -15 which is also -10%. With Newspoll, the numbers are also pretty bad with Rudd -18 (-6) and Abbott -12 (-9)

EDITL Essential's Primary numbers are 39%, 41% and 9%
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