Thursday, July 1, 2010

Federal Election Preview: Bonner

Preview by Anonymous


The division of Bonner was created for the 2004 federal election and named after Neville Bonner, the first Aborigine to serve in the Australian Parliament, serving as a liberal Senator for Queensland.

Notionally Labor for the 2004 election, it was won by a slim margin by Ross Vasta of the Liberal Party, with a TPP margin of 50.5% to 49.5%. The 2007 election saw Vasta lose the seat to the ALP’s Kerry Rea after a 5% swing took the ALP TPP vote to 54.5%.

2007 Results
Candidate Party Vote % Swing %
Kerry Rea ALP 48.80 +6.05
Ross Vasta Liberal 41.91 -2.22
David Wyatt Greens 4.90 -0.03
Stephen Gellaly FF 1.93 -.243
Shane Boese Fishing Party 1.21 NEW
Vicki Stocks Democrats 1.00 -0.40
Lisa Charles Liberty and Democracy 0.25 NEW

Bonner is a diverse electorate located in southeast Brisbane spanning from Mt Gravatt to Moreton Island in the bay. It includes the working class suburbs near Brisbane Port, acreage in suburbs such as Gumdale and Chandler and many middle class suburbs such as Belmont, Carindale and Wishart.

The main suburbs include Belmont, Burbank, Capalaba West, Carindale, Chandler, Gumdale, Hemmant, Lota, Lytton, Manly, Manly West, Mansfield, Moreton Island, Mount Gravatt, Ransome, Rochedale, Tingalpa, Upper Mt Gravatt, Wakerley, Wishart, Wynnum, Wynnum West and parts of Cannon Hill, Carina, Eight Mile Plains, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mackenzie, Mount Gravatt East and Murarrie.


In 2007 Rea was one of the many ALP candidates across the nation that ran a campaign off the back of the Kevin07 brand. With Rudd having been removed from the office of Prime Minister, Rea will suffer from not having created a profile for herself in the electorate. She also lives in the furthest corner of the neighboring electorate, Griffith.

Ross Vasta will be having a second tilt at federal politics for the LNP. Although he was only the member for one term he has a strong local profile and has so far been running his campaign on federal issues such as debt, broken promises and waste and mismanagement.

The Greens are yet to announce a candidate for Bonner, however having only polled 4.9% in 2007 as opposed to 7.8% nationally I doubt they will be able to make inroads in a seat such as Bonner.


Whilst Gillard will increase the ALP vote in inner-city areas Bonner, which has been referred to as the ‘Bible Belt’ in the past will be an electorate where her policies, including her admission of being an atheist, could harm the ALP’s chances.

Despite Rae’s lack of profile in the electorate and Gillard being more leftwing than Rudd, I would expect the ALP to hold Bonner, albeit with a swing against.

Paul's Prediction: ALP to just hold in a tight contest.
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